Paganese vs Sarnese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Sarnese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paganese wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paganese vs Sarnese?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Paganese (1,716) and Sarnese (1,715).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paganese vs Sarnese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paganese
Not enough data to predict the Paganese lineup.
Sarnese
Not enough data to predict the Sarnese lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paganese have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sarnese have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Budoni(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Trastevere(away) | 6-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ossese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Venafro(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Paganese wins, 1 draw, 2 Sarnese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sarnese 2-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Sarnese 1-1 Paganese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Paganese 2-1 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Sarnese 1-0 Paganese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Paganese 1-0 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Sarnese 1-2 Paganese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Paganese score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sarnese score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paganese | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Sarnese | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paganese sit 7th in Serie D - Girone G (10 points from 6 matches) and Sarnese sit 1st (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Paganese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
A question about Paganese vs Sarnese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paganese vs Sarnese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paganese the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Sarnese.
- Where and when is Paganese vs Sarnese played?
- Paganese vs Sarnese is played on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.