Paju Citizen vs Hwaseong: prediction and stats
K League 2Regular Season - 30Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC)Paju Public Stadium, Paju
The Footlab model makes Hwaseong the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Paju Citizen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paju Citizen vs Hwaseong?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Paju Citizen (1,601) and Hwaseong (1,679).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paju Citizen have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Hwaseong have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Seoul E-Land FC(away) | 1-1 | K League 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Seongnam FC(home) | 2-1 | K League 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Suwon City FC(home) | 0-1 | K League 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jeonnam Dragons(away) | 2-1 | K League 2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bucheon FC 1995(away) | 0-3 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Jeonnam Dragons(away) | 0-1 | K League 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Busan I Park(away) | 0-0 | K League 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Seoul E-Land FC(home) | 0-0 | K League 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Daegu FC(home) | 5-1 | K League 2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jeju United FC(away) | 3-3 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Paju Citizen win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Hwaseong win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Hwaseong 1-2 Paju Citizen | K League 2 |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Paju Citizen 0-2 Hwaseong | K3 League |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Hwaseong 2-0 Paju Citizen | K3 League |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Paju Citizen 2-1 Hwaseong | K3 League |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Hwaseong 0-0 Paju Citizen | K3 League |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Paju Citizen 3-0 Hwaseong | K3 League |
Last archived meeting: Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen on Jul 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paju Citizen score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Hwaseong score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paju Citizen | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Hwaseong | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paju Citizen sit 11th in K League 2 (25 points from 22 matches) and Hwaseong sit 6th (36 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hwaseong | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 23 | 36 |
| 11 | Paju Citizen | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 27 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paju Citizen vs Hwaseong?
- The Footlab model makes Hwaseong the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Paju Citizen.
- Where and when is Paju Citizen vs Hwaseong played?
- Paju Citizen vs Hwaseong is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:30 AM (UTC) at Paju Public Stadium, in the K League 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.