Paredes vs Varzim: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
The Footlab AI model makes Paredes the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Varzim. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,384 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paredes vs Varzim?
On Elo ratings, Paredes has 2,090 points and Varzim 2,003.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paredes vs Varzim
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paredes
4-3-3- 11F. Almara
- 84Yuk Jinyoung
- 30Francisco Canário
- 8Diogo Silva
- 10Daniel Rodrigues
- 6B. Val
- 3Dénis Duarte
- 13João Vigário
- 44Gustavo Fernandes
- 2P. Araujo
- 31Fábio Matos
Varzim
4-3-3- 9Rodrigo Pereira
- 7Pedro Matos
- 11D. Benchi
- 27Martim Boloto
- 55D. Rebelo
- 10M. Moreno Tavares Cunha
- 26Rúben Fernandes
- 19A. Morais Guedes
- 3P. Nuno
- 4Kauã Oliveira
- 49P. Costa
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paredes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Varzim have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 3-3 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ermesinde(away) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Paredes wins, 2 draws, 1 Varzim win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Varzim 0-1 Paredes | Liga 3 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Paredes 0-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Varzim 2-2 Paredes | Liga 3 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Paredes 1-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Dec 2, 2022 | Varzim 1-0 Paredes | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Paredes score 2.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Varzim score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paredes | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Varzim | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paredes sit 1st in Liga 3 (13 points from 6 matches) and Varzim sit 6th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
A question about Paredes vs Varzim?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paredes vs Varzim?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paredes the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Varzim.
- Where and when is Paredes vs Varzim played?
- Paredes vs Varzim is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal das Laranjeiras, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.