Paredes vs Varzim: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
The Footlab model makes Paredes the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Varzim. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paredes vs Varzim?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Paredes (1,969) and Varzim (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paredes have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Varzim have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leça(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 3-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | AVS(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Paredes win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Varzim win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Paredes 0-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Varzim 2-2 Paredes | Liga 3 |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Paredes 1-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Dec 2, 2022 | Varzim 1-0 Paredes | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Paredes score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paredes | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paredes sit 2nd in Liga 3 (6 points from 3 matches) and Varzim sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Paredes | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paredes vs Varzim?
- The Footlab model makes Paredes the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Varzim.
- Where and when is Paredes vs Varzim played?
- Paredes vs Varzim is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal das Laranjeiras, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.