Match

SC Covilha vs Mafra: prediction and stats

Liga 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto, Covilhã

SC CovilhaMafra

The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for SC Covilha. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mafra wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,583 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win SC Covilha vs Mafra?

Mafra starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,955 vs 1,841).

29%30%41%
SC Covilha winDrawMafra win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for SC Covilha vs Mafra

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

SC Covilha

4-3-3
  1. 99C. Niang
  2. 18J. Pacheco
  3. 7Danny
  1. 6A. Barbosa
  2. 5H. Innusah
  3. 8R. Coelho
  1. 2Kauan Gomes
  2. 45M. Aidara
  3. 23Emerson Gomes
  4. 22E. Gomes Silva
  1. 1Gustavo Galil

Mafra

4-3-3
  1. 7R. Matos
  2. 9Mamor Niang
  3. 11Leandro Alves
  1. 46Braima Samú
  2. 37A. Ba
  3. 6Y. Maïga
  1. 5Gonçalo Cardoso
  2. 2M. Camara
  3. 3Kauê Alves
  4. 13Celso Raposo
  1. 33Pedro Silva

Computed on October 17, 2026 at 08:23 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Covilha have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Mafra have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

SC Covilha
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Oliveirense(home)0-0Liga 3
Sep 12, 2026Lusitano Évora 1911(away)2-2Liga 3
Sep 5, 2026Mafra(away)0-1Liga 3
Aug 30, 2026Mortágua(home)0-0Taça de Portugal
Aug 22, 2026Atlético CP(home)0-3Liga 3
Mafra
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026CF Os Belenenses(home)2-2Liga 3
Sep 19, 2026Tirsense(home)2-2Taça de Portugal
Sep 12, 2026Oliveirense(away)1-2Liga 3
Sep 5, 2026SC Covilha(home)1-0Liga 3
Aug 29, 2026Atlético Malveira(away)3-2Taça de Portugal

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 SC Covilha win, 1 draw, 4 Mafra wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 5, 2026Mafra 1-0 SC CovilhaLiga 3
Dec 13, 2025Mafra 2-0 SC CovilhaLiga 3
Sep 14, 2025SC Covilha 0-0 MafraLiga 3
Apr 24, 2023SC Covilha 1-2 MafraSegunda Liga
Nov 4, 2022Mafra 3-2 SC CovilhaSegunda Liga
Mar 19, 2022SC Covilha 2-0 MafraSegunda Liga

Last archived meeting: Mafra vs SC Covilha on Sep 5, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

SC Covilha score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mafra score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
SC Covilha0.91.147/156/15
Mafra1.91.369/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

SC Covilha sit 8th in Liga 3 (6 points from 6 matches) and Mafra sit 4th (8 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Mafra62221178
8SC Covilha6132466

A question about SC Covilha vs Mafra?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for SC Covilha vs Mafra?
The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for SC Covilha.
Where and when is SC Covilha vs Mafra played?
SC Covilha vs Mafra is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto, in the Liga 3.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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