Match

Caldas vs União Santarém: prediction and stats

Liga 3Regular Season - 13Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha

CaldasUnião Santarém

The Footlab AI model makes Caldas the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caldas wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,621 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caldas vs União Santarém?

A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Caldas (1,871) and União Santarém (1,916).

37%28%35%
Caldas winDrawUnião Santarém win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Caldas vs União Santarém

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Caldas

4-3-3
  1. 17Goncas
  2. 9G. Chaves
  3. 77G. Pio
  1. 24Filipe Oliveira
  2. 8Diogo Clemente
  3. 6Diogo Izata
  1. 3Nando
  2. 28D. Nascimento
  3. 23M. Rodeia
  4. 20G. Lourenco
  1. 12D. Almeida

União Santarém

4-3-3
  1. 30R. Mordomo
  2. 9Costinha
  3. 64Rafael Camacho
  1. 37Mauro Macuta Simão
  2. 27A. Soumare
  3. 21João Nobrega
  1. 55Hélder Sá
  2. 17K. John
  3. 2B. Sousa
  4. 5Tiago André
  1. 1Ricardo Ribeiro

Computed on November 6, 2026 at 08:58 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caldas have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; União Santarém have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caldas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026SC Covilha(away)1-0Liga 3
Oct 24, 2026Mafra(home)3-3Liga 3
Oct 11, 2026Atlético CP(away)1-4Liga 3
Sep 13, 2026Vitória de Sernache(home)2-0Liga 3
Sep 4, 2026União Santarém(away)1-0Liga 3
União Santarém
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Atlético CP(away)1-3Liga 3
Oct 25, 2026Vitória de Sernache(home)2-1Liga 3
Oct 14, 2026GIL Vicente(home)2-3Taça de Portugal
Oct 9, 2026Lusitano Évora 1911(home)3-0Liga 3
Sep 20, 2026Merelinense(home)5-0Taça de Portugal

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Caldas wins, 1 draw, 3 União Santarém wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 4, 2026União Santarém 0-1 CaldasLiga 3
Dec 19, 2025Caldas 0-2 União SantarémLiga 3
Sep 24, 2025União Santarém 0-1 CaldasLiga 3
Apr 12, 2025Caldas 0-1 União SantarémLiga 3
Mar 16, 2025União Santarém 0-0 CaldasLiga 3
Dec 15, 2024Caldas 0-3 União SantarémLiga 3

Last archived meeting: União Santarém vs Caldas on Sep 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Caldas score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; União Santarém score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Caldas1.21.649/157/15
União Santarém1.31.538/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caldas sit 4th in Liga 3 (11 points from 8 matches) and União Santarém sit 6th (10 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Caldas8323101211
6União Santarém831491410

A question about Caldas vs União Santarém?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caldas vs União Santarém?
The Footlab AI model makes Caldas the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for União Santarém.
Where and when is Caldas vs União Santarém played?
Caldas vs União Santarém is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Mata, in the Liga 3.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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