Partick vs Ayr Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Wyre Stadium at Firhill, Glasgow
The Footlab model makes Partick the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Ayr Utd. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Partick vs Ayr Utd?
Partick starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,887 vs 1,760).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Partick have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Ayr Utd have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Clydebank(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Partick win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Ayr Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ayr Utd 1-1 Partick | Championship |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Partick 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Ayr Utd 0-0 Partick | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Partick 2-1 Ayr Utd | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Partick 2-0 Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| May 9, 2025 | Ayr Utd 0-2 Partick | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Partick score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ayr Utd score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Ayr Utd | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Partick sit 3rd in Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Ayr Utd sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Partick | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Partick vs Ayr Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Partick the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Ayr Utd.
- Where and when is Partick vs Ayr Utd played?
- Partick vs Ayr Utd is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Wyre Stadium at Firhill, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.