Patriotas vs Depor FC: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 15Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de La Independencia, Tunja
The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Depor FC. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Patriotas vs Depor FC?
Patriotas starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (1,556 vs 1,345).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Patriotas have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Depor FC have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Llaneros(away) | 1-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Real Santander(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barranquilla(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| May 30, 2026 | Millonarios(home) | 1-8 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Patriotas win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Depor FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Patriotas 2-0 Depor FC | Primera B |
| May 11, 2026 | Depor FC 1-1 Patriotas | Copa Colombia |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Depor FC 1-1 Patriotas | Primera B |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Depor FC 1-3 Patriotas | Primera B |
| May 18, 2025 | Patriotas 2-1 Depor FC | Primera B |
| Sep 11, 2023 | Patriotas 2-1 Depor FC | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Patriotas vs Depor FC on Aug 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Patriotas score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Depor FC score 0.9 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriotas | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Depor FC | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Patriotas sit 11th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Depor FC sit 15th (9 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Patriotas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Patriotas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Depor FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 9 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 9 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Depor FC | 19 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Patriotas vs Depor FC?
- The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Depor FC.
- Where and when is Patriotas vs Depor FC played?
- Patriotas vs Depor FC is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de La Independencia, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.