Patronato vs Atlanta: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella, Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos
The Footlab model makes Patronato the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Atlanta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Patronato vs Atlanta?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Patronato (1,708) and Atlanta (1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Patronato have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; Atlanta have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colon Santa Fe(away) | 0-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colegiales(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Quilmes(home) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Midland(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(away) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Temperley(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Maipu(away) | 2-4 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Patronato win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Atlanta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Atlanta 0-0 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Patronato 0-0 Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Atlanta 1-1 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 3, 2012 | Atlanta 0-0 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 4, 2011 | Patronato 3-2 Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Patronato score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlanta score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patronato | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Atlanta | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Patronato sit 17th in Primera Nacional (25 points from 25 matches) and Atlanta sit 3rd (42 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atlanta | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 25 | 42 |
| 17 | Patronato | 25 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Patronato vs Atlanta?
- The Footlab model makes Patronato the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Atlanta.
- Where and when is Patronato vs Atlanta played?
- Patronato vs Atlanta is played on August 26, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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