PAU vs Saint Etienne: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade Nouste Camp, Bizanos
The Footlab AI model makes Saint Etienne the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for PAU. The most likely score is 1-1. If Saint Etienne wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,984 vs 1,822).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for PAU vs Saint Etienne
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
PAU
5-3-2- 9B. Leye
- 7H. Benali
- 21J. Benet
- 6C. Fall
- 19T. Saettel
- 2T. Pouilly
- 29G. Paquiez
- 97A. Abdallah
- 23A. Briançon
- 88A. Bamba
- 1B. Maubleu
Saint Etienne
4-2-3-1- 7I. Cardona
- 6M. Bernauer
- 8T. Ballo
- 14Á. Csongvai
- 20A. Boakye
- 10J. Breum
- 18S. Nair
- 23K. Pedro
- 11B. Old
- 13João Ferreira
- 30G. Larsonneur
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PAU have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Saint Etienne have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Laval(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Dunkerque(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Montpellier(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sochaux(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | FC Sion(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Metz(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Dunkerque(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Montpellier(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 PAU win, 1 draw, 4 Saint Etienne wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Saint Etienne 6-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 23, 2024 | PAU 0-1 Saint Etienne | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Saint Etienne 1-2 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Saint Etienne 2-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 5, 2022 | PAU 2-2 Saint Etienne | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
PAU score 1.2 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Saint Etienne score 2.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Saint Etienne | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PAU sit 8th in Ligue 2 (11 points from 8 matches) and Saint Etienne sit 1st (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
A question about PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
- The Footlab AI model makes Saint Etienne the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for PAU.
- Where and when is PAU vs Saint Etienne played?
- PAU vs Saint Etienne is played on December 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Nouste Camp, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.