Pavia vs Pontedera: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Pavia the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Pontedera. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pavia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pavia vs Pontedera?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Pavia (1,660) and Pontedera (1,577).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pavia vs Pontedera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Pontedera
4-3-3- 28A. Raychev
- 25Herculano Nabian
- 17P. Vitali
- 8F. Faggi
- 20R. Pietrelli
- 10E. Kabashi
- 13M. Å apola
- 23C. Cerretti
- 94L. Piana
- 3D. Leo
- 21V. Biagini
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pavia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Pontedera have 0, 2 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lentigione(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Città di Varese(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pro Sesto(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pontedera score 0.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Pontedera | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pavia sit 9th in Serie D - Girone D (8 points from 7 matches) and Pontedera sit 18th (0 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
A question about Pavia vs Pontedera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pavia vs Pontedera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pavia the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Pontedera.
- Where and when is Pavia vs Pontedera played?
- Pavia vs Pontedera is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.