Varesina vs Arconatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Comunale, Venegono Superiore
The Footlab AI model makes Varesina the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Arconatese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varesina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varesina vs Arconatese?
Varesina starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,627 vs 1,504).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varesina vs Arconatese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varesina
Not enough data to predict the Varesina lineup.
Arconatese
Not enough data to predict the Arconatese lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varesina have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Arconatese have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pavia(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | USD Casatese(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pro Sesto(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pavia(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Varesina wins, 0 draws, 2 Arconatese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | Varesina 1-2 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Arconatese 0-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Varesina 2-1 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 15, 2023 | Varesina 1-0 Arconatese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Arconatese 3-2 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Arconatese 0-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Varesina vs Arconatese on Jan 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arconatese score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Arconatese | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varesina sit 12th in Serie D - Girone D (6 points from 7 matches) and Arconatese sit 16th (3 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Varesina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
A question about Varesina vs Arconatese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varesina vs Arconatese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varesina the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Arconatese.
- Where and when is Varesina vs Arconatese played?
- Varesina vs Arconatese is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Comunale, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.