Varesina vs Arconatese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Comunale, Venegono Superiore
The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Arconatese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varesina vs Arconatese?
Varesina starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,722 vs 1,603).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varesina have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Arconatese have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Caldiero Terme(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Breno(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Milan II(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Chievo(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Breno(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Chievo(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sangiuliano City(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Fanfulla(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Pro Palazzolo(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Varesina win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Arconatese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | Varesina 1-2 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Arconatese 0-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Varesina 2-1 Arconatese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Nov 15, 2023 | Varesina 1-0 Arconatese | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Arconatese 3-2 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Arconatese 0-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Varesina vs Arconatese on Jan 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Varesina score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arconatese score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varesina | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Arconatese | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varesina vs Arconatese?
- The Footlab model makes Varesina the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Arconatese.
- Where and when is Varesina vs Arconatese played?
- Varesina vs Arconatese is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Comunale, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.