Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd: prediction and stats
NB III - SouthwestSouthwest - 17Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)PMFC Stadion, Pécs
The Footlab model makes Pécsi MFC the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Sárbogárd. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd?
Pécsi MFC is a heavy favourite: 1,705 Elo points against 1,310 — a 395-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pécsi MFC have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Sárbogárd have 3, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sárbogárd(home) | 3-0 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ferencváros II(home) | 3-0 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sárbogárd(away) | 6-0 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 3-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dunaharaszti MTK(home) | 2-0 | NB III - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(away) | 0-3 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 0-3 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(home) | 0-6 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Budafoki LC(home) | 0-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 26, 2026 | PTE-PEAC(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Pécsi MFC win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sárbogárd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pécsi MFC 3-0 Sárbogárd | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sárbogárd 0-6 Pécsi MFC | NB III - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pécsi MFC score 2.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sárbogárd score 1.1 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pécsi MFC | 2.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Sárbogárd | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0 | 8/14 | 12/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pécsi MFC sit 1st in NB III - Southwest (12 points from 4 matches) and Sárbogárd sit 15th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Sárbogárd | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd?
- The Footlab model makes Pécsi MFC the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Sárbogárd.
- Where and when is Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd played?
- Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at PMFC Stadion, in the NB III - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.