Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Cae Baker, Penrhyncoch, Ceredigion
The Footlab model makes Penrhyncoch the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Gresford Athletic. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Penrhyncoch (1,540) and Gresford Athletic (1,487).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penrhyncoch have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Gresford Athletic have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newtown AFC(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bala Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Caersws(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Newtown AFC(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Guilsfield(away) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Penrhyncoch win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gresford Athletic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Penrhyncoch 4-1 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Gresford Athletic 3-2 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Gresford Athletic 1-1 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Penrhyncoch 2-4 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Gresford Athletic 3-2 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Penrhyncoch 1-0 Gresford Athletic | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penrhyncoch score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gresford Athletic score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrhyncoch | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Gresford Athletic | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penrhyncoch sit 15th in FAW Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Gresford Athletic sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic?
- The Footlab model makes Penrhyncoch the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Gresford Athletic.
- Where and when is Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic played?
- Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic is played on October 3, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Cae Baker, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.