Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 10Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Central Park, Denbigh, Denbighshire
The Footlab model makes Denbigh Town the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Holyhead Hotspur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Denbigh Town (1,585) and Holyhead Hotspur (1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Denbigh Town have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Holyhead Hotspur have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Denbigh Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Holyhead Hotspur win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Denbigh Town 1-1 Holyhead Hotspur | FAW Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Holyhead Hotspur 3-2 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Oct 7, 2017 | Denbigh Town 4-3 Holyhead Hotspur | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur on Mar 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Denbigh Town score 1.4 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Holyhead Hotspur score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denbigh Town | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Holyhead Hotspur | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Denbigh Town sit 12th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Holyhead Hotspur sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 13 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?
- The Footlab model makes Denbigh Town the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Holyhead Hotspur.
- Where and when is Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur played?
- Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Central Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.