Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Persepam Madura Utd. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Persebaya Surabaya starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persebaya Surabaya have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Persepam Madura Utd have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | PSM Makassar(home) | 2-0 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | PSIM Yogyakarta(away) | 1-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(away) | 1-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 5, 2026 | Bali United(home) | 2-0 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Semen Padang(away) | 1-0 | Liga 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Persebaya Surabaya win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Persepam Madura Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-2 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Persepam Madura Utd 1-2 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 0-0 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Persepam Madura Utd 3-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Persepam Madura Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Persepam Madura Utd | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th in Liga 1 (58 points from 34 matches) and Persepam Madura Utd sit 14th (35 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 14 | Persepam Madura Utd | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 37 | 54 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Persepam Madura Utd.
- Where and when is Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd played?
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd is played on October 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.