Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC)Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for PSS Sleman. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Persebaya Surabaya (1,850) and PSS Sleman (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persebaya Surabaya have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; PSS Sleman have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Garudayaksa(home) | 2-2 | Liga 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | PSIS Semarang(home) | 3-0 | Liga 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Persiba Balikpapan(away) | 1-1 | Liga 2 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Persiku Kudus(home) | 2-1 | Liga 2 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Barito Putera(away) | 0-1 | Liga 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Persebaya Surabaya win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 PSS Sleman win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | PSS Sleman 3-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSS Sleman | Liga 1 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 PSS Sleman | Liga 1 |
| Aug 26, 2023 | PSS Sleman 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Feb 13, 2023 | Persebaya Surabaya 4-2 PSS Sleman | Liga 1 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | PSS Sleman 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: PSS Sleman vs Persebaya Surabaya on Jan 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; PSS Sleman score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| PSS Sleman | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for PSS Sleman.
- Where and when is Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman played?
- Persebaya Surabaya vs PSS Sleman is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC) at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.