Persepam Madura Utd vs Persebaya Surabaya: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 20Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Persepam Madura Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persepam Madura Utd vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Persebaya Surabaya starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persepam Madura Utd have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Persebaya Surabaya have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | PSM Makassar(home) | 2-0 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | PSIM Yogyakarta(away) | 1-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(away) | 1-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 5, 2026 | Bali United(home) | 2-0 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Semen Padang(away) | 1-0 | Liga 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Persepam Madura Utd win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Persebaya Surabaya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-2 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Persepam Madura Utd 1-2 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 0-0 Persepam Madura Utd | Liga 1 |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Persepam Madura Utd 3-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Persepam Madura Utd score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persepam Madura Utd | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Persepam Madura Utd sit 14th in Liga 1 (35 points from 34 matches) and Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 14 | Persepam Madura Utd | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 37 | 54 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persepam Madura Utd vs Persebaya Surabaya?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Persepam Madura Utd.
- Where and when is Persepam Madura Utd vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
- Persepam Madura Utd vs Persebaya Surabaya is played on February 21, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.