Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 21Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for PSM Makassar. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Persebaya Surabaya starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persebaya Surabaya have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; PSM Makassar have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Persib Bandung(home) | 1-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Arema FC(away) | 0-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Bali United(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Persebaya Surabaya win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 PSM Makassar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PSM Makassar 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | PSM Makassar 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | PSM Makassar 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; PSM Makassar score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| PSM Makassar | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th in Liga 1 (58 points from 34 matches) and PSM Makassar sit 15th (34 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 15 | PSM Makassar | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39 | 49 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for PSM Makassar.
- Where and when is Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar played?
- Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar is played on February 27, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.