Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 15Kick-off on December 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno, Jakarta
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Persita. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Persebaya Surabaya starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,676).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persita have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Persebaya Surabaya have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Persis Solo(home) | 1-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 16, 2026 | Malut United(away) | 1-1 | Liga 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Persijap(home) | 0-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 5, 2026 | Pusamania Borneo(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | PSIM Yogyakarta(away) | 1-0 | Liga 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Persita win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Persebaya Surabaya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persita | Liga 1 |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Persita 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Persita | Liga 1 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Persita 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Persita 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persita | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs Persita on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Persita score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persita | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Persita sit 10th in Liga 1 (45 points from 34 matches) and Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 10 | Persita | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 38 | 37 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Persita.
- Where and when is Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
- Persita vs Persebaya Surabaya is played on December 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 16, 2026PersijavsPersepam Madura Utd
- Dec 17, 2026PSM MakassarvsGarudayaksa
- Dec 17, 2026Dewa UnitedvsAdhyaksa
- Dec 18, 2026PSS SlemanvsPersijap
- Dec 18, 2026Persik KedirivsMalut United
- Dec 18, 2026Bali UnitedvsPSIM Yogyakarta
- Dec 20, 2026Bhayangkara FCvsPusamania Borneo
- Dec 20, 2026Arema FCvsPersib Bandung