Perugia vs Gubbio: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 27Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia
The Footlab model makes Perugia the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Gubbio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Perugia vs Gubbio?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Perugia (1,771) and Gubbio (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Perugia have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Gubbio have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Forli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Campobasso FC(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ternana(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 2-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Perugia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Gubbio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Perugia 0-1 Gubbio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Gubbio 1-1 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Gubbio 1-0 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Perugia 1-1 Gubbio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Gubbio 0-1 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Perugia 1-0 Gubbio | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Perugia score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gubbio score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Gubbio | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Perugia sit 6th in Serie C - Girone B (3 points from 1 matches) and Gubbio sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Perugia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Gubbio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Perugia vs Gubbio?
- The Footlab model makes Perugia the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Gubbio.
- Where and when is Perugia vs Gubbio played?
- Perugia vs Gubbio is played on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Renato Curi, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.