Phoenix Rising vs El Paso Locomotive: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, Phoenix, Arizona
The Footlab model makes El Paso Locomotive the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Phoenix Rising. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs El Paso Locomotive?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Phoenix Rising (1,732) and El Paso Locomotive (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Phoenix Rising have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; El Paso Locomotive have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sacramento Republic(away) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(away) | 1-1 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Hartford Athletic(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Phoenix Rising win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 El Paso Locomotive win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive 1-1 Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| Nov 2, 2025 | El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Phoenix Rising 3-3 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Jul 20, 2025 | El Paso Locomotive 2-2 Phoenix Rising | USL League One Cup |
| Mar 16, 2025 | El Paso Locomotive 4-4 Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Phoenix Rising 2-0 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Phoenix Rising score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; El Paso Locomotive score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Phoenix Rising sit 5th in USL Championship (17 points from 13 matches) and El Paso Locomotive sit 7th (16 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 5 | Phoenix Rising | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 17 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 16 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Phoenix Rising vs El Paso Locomotive?
- The Footlab model makes El Paso Locomotive the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Phoenix Rising.
- Where and when is Phoenix Rising vs El Paso Locomotive played?
- Phoenix Rising vs El Paso Locomotive is played on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots