Where and when is Phoenix Rising vs Lexington played?

Phoenix Rising vs Lexington is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Phoenix Rising vs Lexington: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, Phoenix, Arizona

Phoenix Rising

Lexington

The Footlab model makes Phoenix Rising the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lexington. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?

A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Phoenix Rising (1,731) and Lexington (1,764).

Phoenix Rising win39 %

Draw27 %

Lexington win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Phoenix Rising have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Lexington have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Phoenix Rising
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	2-2	USL Championship
Aug 20, 2026	Colorado Springs(home)	3-1	USL Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Lexington(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Las Vegas Lights(away)	1-1	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	Hartford Athletic(home)	0-0	USL Championship

Lexington
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Las Vegas Lights(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Phoenix Rising(home)	1-0	USL Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Monterey Bay(home)	3-2	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	FC Tulsa(away)	0-0	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Phoenix Rising win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Lexington win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Lexington 1-0 Phoenix Rising	USL Championship
Aug 9, 2025	Lexington 2-0 Phoenix Rising	USL Championship
Jul 5, 2025	Phoenix Rising 0-1 Lexington	USL Championship

Last archived meeting: Lexington vs Phoenix Rising on Aug 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Phoenix Rising score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Lexington score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Phoenix Rising	1.3	1.8	2	9/15	9/15
Lexington	1.7	1.2	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Phoenix Rising sit 5th in USL Championship (17 points from 13 matches) and Lexington sit 8th (15 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Phoenix Rising	13	4	5	4	16	15	17
7	Lexington	20	9	4	7	30	23	31
8	Lexington	12	4	3	5	17	15	15
11	Phoenix Rising	21	6	8	7	29	29	26

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?: The Footlab model makes Phoenix Rising the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lexington.
Where and when is Phoenix Rising vs Lexington played?: Phoenix Rising vs Lexington is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.