Match

Phoenix Rising vs Lexington: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, Phoenix, Arizona

Phoenix RisingLexington

The Footlab AI model makes Lexington the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Phoenix Rising. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lexington wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?

A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Phoenix Rising (1,809) and Lexington (1,878).

27%25%48%
Phoenix Rising winDrawLexington win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Phoenix Rising

5-4-1
  1. 7I. Sacko
  1. 17J. Scearce
  2. 28K. Arase
  3. 70J. Torres
  4. 19D. Rivera
  1. 87Daniel Flores
  2. 13J. Moursou
  3. 8D. Gómez
  4. 4P. Mar Boye
  5. 51A. Essengue
  1. 1P. Rakovsky

Lexington

4-3-3
  1. 7M. Epps
  2. 9P. Goodrum
  3. 34M. Fry
  1. 16B. Ferri
  2. 8Nick Firmino
  3. 6A. Molloy
  1. 2J. Greene
  2. 5K. Burks
  3. 12X. Zengue
  4. 23J. Brown
  1. 17O. Semmle

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:07 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Phoenix Rising have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Lexington have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Phoenix Rising
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Las Vegas Lights(home)3-2USL Championship
Oct 4, 2026New Mexico United(away)1-2USL Championship
Sep 27, 2026Oakland Roots(away)0-3USL Championship
Sep 20, 2026El Paso Locomotive(home)1-3USL Championship
Sep 13, 2026FC Tulsa(home)2-1USL Championship
Lexington
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 9, 2026FC Tulsa(home)0-0USL Championship
Oct 3, 2026El Paso Locomotive(home)3-1USL Championship
Sep 27, 2026Monterey Bay(away)3-2USL Championship
Sep 19, 2026Orange County SC(home)6-0USL Championship
Sep 13, 2026Oakland Roots(away)4-1USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Phoenix Rising wins, 0 draws, 3 Lexington wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 8, 2026Lexington 1-0 Phoenix RisingUSL Championship
Aug 9, 2025Lexington 2-0 Phoenix RisingUSL Championship
Jul 5, 2025Phoenix Rising 0-1 LexingtonUSL Championship

Last archived meeting: Lexington vs Phoenix Rising on Aug 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Phoenix Rising score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lexington score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Phoenix Rising1.41.7112/1511/15
Lexington1.91.167/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Phoenix Rising sit 9th in USL Championship (36 points from 28 matches) and Lexington sit 4th (44 points from 28 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Lexington2813510493344
9Phoenix Rising289910394236

A question about Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
The Footlab AI model makes Lexington the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Phoenix Rising.
Where and when is Phoenix Rising vs Lexington played?
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington is played on October 25, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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