Picuiense vs Guarabira: prediction and stats
Paraibano 2Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Guarabira the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Picuiense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Picuiense vs Guarabira?
Guarabira starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,607 vs 1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Picuiense have 2 wins, 1 draws and 12 defeats; Guarabira have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2025 | EC de Patos(home) | 0-5 | Paraibano |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Botafogo PB(away) | 0-3 | Paraibano |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Treze(home) | 2-6 | Paraibano |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Auto Esporte(home) | 1-2 | Paraibano |
| Feb 3, 2025 | Serra Branca(away) | 0-8 | Paraibano |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(away) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 2-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Miramar(away) | 4-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Cruzeiro PB(away) | 1-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Confianca PB(home) | 0-0 | Paraibano 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Picuiense win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Guarabira win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2024 | Picuiense 1-3 Guarabira | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2023 | Picuiense 2-0 Guarabira | Paraibano 2 |
Last archived meeting: Picuiense vs Guarabira on Aug 22, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Picuiense score 0.6 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guarabira score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picuiense | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
| Guarabira | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Picuiense vs Guarabira?
- The Footlab model makes Guarabira the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Picuiense.
- Where and when is Picuiense vs Guarabira played?
- Picuiense vs Guarabira is played on September 23, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraibano 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.