Picuiense vs São Paulo Crystal: prediction and stats
Paraibano 2Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Picuiense the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for São Paulo Crystal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Picuiense vs São Paulo Crystal?
São Paulo Crystal starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,583 vs 1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Picuiense have 2 wins, 1 draws and 12 defeats; São Paulo Crystal have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2025 | EC de Patos(home) | 0-5 | Paraibano |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Botafogo PB(away) | 0-3 | Paraibano |
| Feb 12, 2025 | Treze(home) | 2-6 | Paraibano |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Auto Esporte(home) | 1-2 | Paraibano |
| Feb 3, 2025 | Serra Branca(away) | 0-8 | Paraibano |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2025 | Confianca PB(away) | 0-0 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 3-0 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Serrano PB(home) | 3-0 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Spartax(away) | 3-0 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Sabugy(away) | 3-2 | Paraibano 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Picuiense score 0.6 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; São Paulo Crystal score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picuiense | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
| São Paulo Crystal | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Picuiense vs São Paulo Crystal?
- The Footlab model makes Picuiense the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for São Paulo Crystal.
- Where and when is Picuiense vs São Paulo Crystal played?
- Picuiense vs São Paulo Crystal is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Paraibano 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.