Serrano PB vs Sport PB: prediction and stats
Paraibano 2Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Toca do Papão, Sapé, Paraíba
The Footlab model makes Serrano PB the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Sport PB. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano PB vs Sport PB?
Serrano PB starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,538 vs 1,408).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano PB have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Sport PB have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Spartax(home) | 5-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | São Paulo Crystal(away) | 0-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Miramar(away) | 0-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Atlético Cajazeirense(home) | 3-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Guarabira(home) | 1-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2024 | Spartax(home) | 0-3 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Picuiense(away) | 0-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Cruzeiro PB(home) | 0-2 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Guarabira(away) | 0-1 | Paraibano 2 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Queimadense(home) | 2-1 | Paraibano 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano PB score 1.1 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sport PB score 0.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano PB | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Sport PB | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano PB vs Sport PB?
- The Footlab model makes Serrano PB the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Sport PB.
- Where and when is Serrano PB vs Sport PB played?
- Serrano PB vs Sport PB is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Toca do Papão, in the Paraibano 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.