Piratas vs Tapatío: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 15Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Piratas the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Tapatío. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Piratas vs Tapatío?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Piratas (1,839) and Tapatío (1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, Piratas have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Tapatío have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Durango(away) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 0-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Leon(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Piratas score 0.8 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 5; Tapatío score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3 | 0/5 | 1/5 |
| Tapatío | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Piratas sit 3rd in Liga de Expansión MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Tapatío sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Piratas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Tapatío | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Piratas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Piratas vs Tapatío?
- The Footlab model makes Piratas the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Tapatío.
- Where and when is Piratas vs Tapatío played?
- Piratas vs Tapatío is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC), in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.