Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku, Pogradec
The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Besa Kavajë. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Pogradeci (1,735) and Besa Kavajë (1,641).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogradeci have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Besa Kavajë have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Teuta Durrës(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 11, 2026 | Besa Kavajë(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Kastrioti Krujë(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-3 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | FK Kukesi(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2026 | Pogradeci(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë(away) | 2-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | FK Kukesi(away) | 1-2 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Korabi Peshkopi(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pogradeci win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Besa Kavajë win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Pogradeci 1-0 Besa Kavajë | Superliga |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Besa Kavajë 2-3 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Pogradeci 0-0 Besa Kavajë | 1st Division |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Besa Kavajë 1-1 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Besa Kavajë 0-1 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Pogradeci 0-1 Besa Kavajë | 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Besa Kavajë score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogradeci | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Besa Kavajë | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogradeci sit 3rd in 1st Division (68 points from 33 matches) and Besa Kavajë sit 5th (39 points from 33 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pogradeci | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 68 |
| 5 | Besa Kavajë | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 41 | 43 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë?
- The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Besa Kavajë.
- Where and when is Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë played?
- Pogradeci vs Besa Kavajë is played on January 30, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.