Pogradeci vs Oriku: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku, Pogradec
The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Oriku. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogradeci vs Oriku?
Pogradeci starts as the favourite with a 240-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,494).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogradeci have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Oriku have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Teuta Durrës(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 11, 2026 | Besa Kavajë(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Kastrioti Krujë(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-3 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | FK Kukesi(away) | 0-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Tomori Berat(home) | 3-2 | 2nd Division - Play-offs |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Butrinti Sarandë(home) | 1-1 | 2nd Division - Play-offs |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Memaliaj(away) | 7-0 | 2nd Division - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pogradeci win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Oriku win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2024 | Pogradeci 1-0 Oriku | 2nd Division - Group B |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Oriku 1-1 Pogradeci | 2nd Division - Group B |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Oriku 2-0 Pogradeci | Cup |
| May 14, 2022 | Pogradeci 1-2 Oriku | 1st Division |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Pogradeci 9-1 Oriku | Cup |
| Dec 21, 2019 | Pogradeci 1-0 Oriku | 1st Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Oriku score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogradeci | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Oriku | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pogradeci | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 68 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogradeci vs Oriku?
- The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Oriku.
- Where and when is Pogradeci vs Oriku played?
- Pogradeci vs Oriku is played on October 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.