Polessya vs Chornomorets: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Tsentralnyi Stadion, Zhytomyr
The Footlab model makes Polessya the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polessya vs Chornomorets?
Polessya starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (1,947 vs 1,738).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polessya have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Chornomorets have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chornomorets(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Copenhagen(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polessya(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nyva Vinnytsya(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Polessya win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Chornomorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chornomorets 1-2 Polessya | Premier League |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Polessya 3-1 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Chornomorets 1-4 Polessya | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Polessya 1-4 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Chornomorets 1-0 Polessya | Premier League |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Chornomorets 2-1 Polessya | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Chornomorets vs Polessya on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Polessya score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chornomorets score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polessya | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Chornomorets | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polessya sit 5th in Premier League (6 points from 3 matches) and Chornomorets sit 15th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Polessya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polessya vs Chornomorets?
- The Footlab model makes Polessya the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Polessya vs Chornomorets played?
- Polessya vs Chornomorets is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Tsentralnyi Stadion, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.