Police vs Etoile de l'Est: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 45%, against 35% for a draw and 20% for Etoile de l'Est. The most likely score is 0-0. If Police wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,056 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Etoile de l'Est?
Police starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,655 vs 1,547).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs Etoile de l'Est
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Etoile de l'Est
Not enough data to predict the Etoile de l'Est lineup.
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 07:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Etoile de l'Est have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Marines(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Bugesera(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Al Merreikh(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Al Merreikh(away) | 0-3 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Police wins, 0 draws, 1 Etoile de l'Est win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2024 | Police 1-2 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Dec 8, 2023 | Etoile de l'Est 0-3 Police | National Soccer League |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Police 6-0 Etoile de l'Est | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Etoile de l'Est 0-3 Police | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Police vs Etoile de l'Est on May 4, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Etoile de l'Est score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 1/15 |
| Etoile de l'Est | 0.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 14th in National Soccer League (7 points from 8 matches) and Etoile de l'Est sit 13th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Etoile de l'Est | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | Police | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
A question about Police vs Etoile de l'Est?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Etoile de l'Est?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 45%, against 35% for a draw and 20% for Etoile de l'Est.
- Where and when is Police vs Etoile de l'Est played?
- Police vs Etoile de l'Est is played on January 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.