Marines vs Bugesera: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Bugesera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marines vs Bugesera?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Marines (1,668) and Bugesera (1,679).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marines have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Bugesera have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Gicumbi(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marines win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Bugesera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Bugesera 0-4 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Marines 2-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Bugesera 2-1 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Dec 30, 2024 | Marines 1-4 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Apr 5, 2024 | Marines 0-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Bugesera 0-1 Marines | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Marines score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Bugesera score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Bugesera | 1.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marines sit 8th in National Soccer League (45 points from 34 matches) and Bugesera sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marines | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 45 |
| 9 | Bugesera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 39 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marines vs Bugesera?
- The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Bugesera.
- Where and when is Marines vs Bugesera played?
- Marines vs Bugesera is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.