Police vs Nairobi United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stade Dr Issoufou Joseph Conombo, Ouagadougou
The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Nairobi United. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Nairobi United?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Police (1,602) and Nairobi United (1,544).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Nairobi United have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | Shield Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Police win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Nairobi United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Police 1-1 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Nairobi United vs Police on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 3rd in FKF Premier League (55 points from 34 matches) and Nairobi United sit 4th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Police | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 31 | 21 | 55 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Nairobi United?
- The Footlab model makes Police the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Nairobi United.
- Where and when is Police vs Nairobi United played?
- Police vs Nairobi United is played on April 3, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Dr Issoufou Joseph Conombo, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.