AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for AFC Leopards. The most likely score is 1-1. If GOR Mahia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,713 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate AFC Leopards (1,592) and GOR Mahia (1,691).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AFC Leopards
Not enough data to predict the AFC Leopards lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 05:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Leopards have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; GOR Mahia have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(home) | 4-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-5 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pyramids FC(home) | 0-2 | CAF Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AFC Leopards win, 2 draws, 3 GOR Mahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | AFC Leopards 0-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 7, 2025 | GOR Mahia 0-1 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 2, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-1 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | AFC Leopards 0-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | GOR Mahia 1-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 7, 2023 | AFC Leopards 0-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Leopards score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Leopards sit 11th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for AFC Leopards.
- Where and when is AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia played?
- AFC Leopards vs GOR Mahia is played on April 3, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.