Polisi Tanzania vs Coastal Union: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Coastal Union. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Coastal Union?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Polisi Tanzania (1,490) and Coastal Union (1,541).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Coastal Union have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba(away) | 1-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 1-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Tabora United(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Polisi Tanzania win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Coastal Union win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 3-3 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Coastal Union 0-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 8, 2022 | Coastal Union 1-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 16, 2021 | Coastal Union 0-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 29, 2020 | Polisi Tanzania 1-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Polisi Tanzania vs Coastal Union on Dec 26, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Coastal Union score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 0.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Coastal Union | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 6th in Ligi kuu Bara (4 points from 2 matches) and Coastal Union sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | Coastal Union | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Coastal Union?
- The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Coastal Union.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Coastal Union played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Coastal Union is played on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.