Simba vs Polisi Tanzania: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
The Footlab model makes Simba the favourite at 73%, against 20% for a draw and 7% for Polisi Tanzania. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Simba vs Polisi Tanzania?
Simba is a heavy favourite: 1,922 Elo points against 1,490 — a 432-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Simba have 13 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Polisi Tanzania have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jamus(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba(away) | 1-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Simba win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba 6-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 27, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 1-3 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 27, 2021 | Simba 1-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 9, 2020 | Simba 2-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Simba vs Polisi Tanzania on Jun 6, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Simba score 1.8 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Polisi Tanzania score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba | 1.8 | 0.3 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Polisi Tanzania | 0.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Simba sit 1st in Ligi kuu Bara (9 points from 3 matches) and Polisi Tanzania sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Simba vs Polisi Tanzania?
- The Footlab model makes Simba the favourite at 73%, against 20% for a draw and 7% for Polisi Tanzania.
- Where and when is Simba vs Polisi Tanzania played?
- Simba vs Polisi Tanzania is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at KMC Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.