Kagera Sugar vs Azam: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab model makes Azam the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Azam?
Azam is a heavy favourite: 1,818 Elo points against 1,448 — a 371-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Azam have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kagera Sugar win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Azam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 2-4 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Azam 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 25, 2024 | Azam 5-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 0-4 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 16, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 2-2 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 17, 2022 | Azam 2-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Azam score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Azam | 1.9 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 15th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Azam sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Azam | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Azam?
- The Footlab model makes Azam the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 11% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Azam played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Azam is played on August 31, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.