Portel vs Aljustrelense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 4Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Portel the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portel vs Aljustrelense?
Portel starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,756 vs 1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, Portel have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Aljustrelense have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alcochetense(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sintrense(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 31, 2025 | FC Serpa(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Moura(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Juventude Évora(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Moura(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Louletano(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
How many goals should we expect?
Portel score 0.8 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 5; Aljustrelense score 0.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portel | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0 | 2/5 | 4/5 |
| Aljustrelense | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portel vs Aljustrelense?
- The Footlab model makes Portel the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is Portel vs Aljustrelense played?
- Portel vs Aljustrelense is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.