Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 25Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)The Traeth Stadium, Porthmadog, Gwynedd
The Footlab model makes Porthmadog the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Denbigh Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Porthmadog (1,508) and Denbigh Town (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Porthmadog have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Denbigh Town have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Denbigh Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rhyl(home) | 1-2 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Porthmadog win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Denbigh Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Denbigh Town 2-3 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Porthmadog 2-2 Denbigh Town | Welsh Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Porthmadog 1-4 Denbigh Town | Welsh Cup |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Denbigh Town 3-1 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Porthmadog 2-1 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Porthmadog score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Denbigh Town score 1.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porthmadog | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Denbigh Town | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Porthmadog sit 2nd in FAW Championship (10 points from 4 matches) and Denbigh Town sit 12th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Porthmadog | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town?
- The Footlab model makes Porthmadog the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Denbigh Town.
- Where and when is Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town played?
- Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town is played on March 13, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at The Traeth Stadium, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.