Porto BA vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Baiano - 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Agnaldo Bento Santos, Porto Seguro, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Porto BA. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bahia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,825 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Porto BA vs Bahia?
Bahia is a heavy favourite: 1,827 Elo points against 1,461, a 366-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Porto BA vs Bahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Porto BA
Not enough data to predict the Porto BA lineup.
Bahia
5-3-2- 16Erick Pulga
- 9A. Véliz
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 5N. Acevedo
- 6Jean Lucas
- 33David Duarte
- 46Luciano Juba
- 99C. Olivera
- 44Marcos Victor
- 3Marco Moreno
- 1Ronaldo
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 11:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Porto BA have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Bahia have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Rio Branco ES(away) | 0-4 | Serie D |
| May 30, 2026 | Tombense(home) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 25, 2026 | Democrata GV(away) | 1-3 | Serie D |
| May 16, 2026 | Vitória ES(home) | 0-0 | Serie D |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Noroeste(home) | 1-2 | Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Porto BA wins, 0 draws, 2 Bahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Bahia 3-1 Porto BA | Baiano - 1 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Bahia 2-0 Porto BA | Baiano - 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Porto BA score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto BA | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Porto BA sit 6th in Baiano - 1 (11 points from 9 matches) and Bahia sit 1st (23 points from 9 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2026 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Porto BA | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
A question about Porto BA vs Bahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Porto BA vs Bahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Porto BA.
- Where and when is Porto BA vs Bahia played?
- Porto BA vs Bahia is played on January 30, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Agnaldo Bento Santos, in the Baiano - 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.