Portsmouth vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Fratton Park, Portsmouth
The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Portsmouth. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Derby?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Portsmouth (1,817) and Derby (1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portsmouth have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Derby have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | QPR(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SV Darmstadt 98(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlton(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mansfield Town(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Portsmouth win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Derby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Portsmouth 0-1 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Portsmouth 2-2 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 13, 2024 | Derby 4-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Portsmouth 2-2 Derby | League One |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Derby 1-1 Portsmouth | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Portsmouth score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.2 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Derby | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portsmouth sit 22nd in Championship (0 points from 1 matches) and Derby sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portsmouth vs Derby?
- The Footlab model makes Derby the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Portsmouth.
- Where and when is Portsmouth vs Derby played?
- Portsmouth vs Derby is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Fratton Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.