Birmingham vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (2,047 vs 1,941).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Southampton have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Birmingham win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Southampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | Birmingham 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Southampton 3-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Birmingham 3-4 Southampton | Championship |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Southampton 3-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Feb 4, 2012 | Birmingham 0-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2011 | Southampton 4-1 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Southampton on Dec 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Southampton | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham sit 15th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Southampton sit 24th (-4 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Southampton?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Southampton played?
- Birmingham vs Southampton is played on September 1, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.