Pavia vs Oltrepò: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Pavia the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Oltrepò. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pavia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,608 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pavia vs Oltrepò?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Pavia (1,644) and Oltrepò (1,658).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pavia vs Oltrepò
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Oltrepò
Not enough data to predict the Oltrepò lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 05:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pavia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Oltrepò have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Lentigione(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pro Sesto(away) | 1-6 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Coriano(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Pavia wins, 1 draw, 0 Oltrepò wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Pavia 0-0 Oltrepò | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Oltrepò 0-1 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Oltrepò 0-2 Pavia | Coppa Italia Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Oltrepò score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Oltrepò | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pavia sit 10th in Serie D - Girone D (8 points from 7 matches) and Oltrepò sit 17th (3 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 3 |
A question about Pavia vs Oltrepò?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pavia vs Oltrepò?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pavia the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Oltrepò.
- Where and when is Pavia vs Oltrepò played?
- Pavia vs Oltrepò is played on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.