Pro Sesto vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 29Kick-off on March 25, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni
The Footlab AI model makes Pro Sesto the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pro Sesto wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pro Sesto vs Pavia?
Pro Sesto starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,584).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pro Sesto vs Pavia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pro Sesto
Not enough data to predict the Pro Sesto lineup.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pro Sesto have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Pavia have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Solbiatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Arconatese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oltrepò(home) | 6-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crema(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Pontedera(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pro Sesto score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Sesto | 1.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pro Sesto sit 5th in Serie D - Girone D (14 points from 7 matches) and Pavia sit 10th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
A question about Pro Sesto vs Pavia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pro Sesto vs Pavia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pro Sesto the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Pavia.
- Where and when is Pro Sesto vs Pavia played?
- Pro Sesto vs Pavia is played on March 25, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ernesto Breda, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.