PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC)Stadion Gelora B.J. Habibie, Lompoe
The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for PSM Makassar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Persebaya Surabaya starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSM Makassar have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Persebaya Surabaya have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Persepam Madura Utd(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Persib Bandung(home) | 1-2 | Liga 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Arema FC(away) | 0-3 | Liga 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | Bhayangkara FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga 1 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Bali United(away) | 0-2 | Liga 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 PSM Makassar win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Persebaya Surabaya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PSM Makassar 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | PSM Makassar 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | PSM Makassar 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PSM Makassar score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSM Makassar | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSM Makassar sit 15th in Liga 1 (34 points from 34 matches) and Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
| 15 | PSM Makassar | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39 | 49 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?
- The Footlab model makes Persebaya Surabaya the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for PSM Makassar.
- Where and when is PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
- PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya is played on October 22, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC) at Stadion Gelora B.J. Habibie, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.