PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 6Kick-off on December 9, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If PSV Eindhoven wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid?
On Elo ratings, PSV Eindhoven has 2,224 points and Atletico Madrid 2,198.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1- 21S. Mijnans
- 20G. Til
- 24K. Sano
- 7R. van Bommel
- 17Mauro Júnior
- 5I. Perišić
- 4A. Obispo
- 8S. Dest
- 2L. Geertruida
- 18F. Kostić
- 32M. Kovář
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 19J. Álvarez
- 20G. Simeone
- 5J. Cardoso
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 10Álex Baena
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 21C. Romero
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 17D. Hancko
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSV Eindhoven have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 PSV Eindhoven wins, 2 draws, 3 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-3 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 23, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 PSV Eindhoven | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 13, 2016 | PSV Eindhoven 0-1 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Mar 15, 2016 | Atletico Madrid 0-0 PSV Eindhoven | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 24, 2016 | PSV Eindhoven 0-0 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid on Dec 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
PSV Eindhoven score 2.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSV Eindhoven sit 25th in UEFA Champions League (1 point from 2 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
A question about PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid played?
- PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid is played on December 9, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.