Atletico Madrid vs Valencia: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Valencia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 3,118 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (2,301 vs 2,080).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 15J. David
- 11A. Lookman
- 20G. Simeone
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 17D. Hancko
- 21C. Romero
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13J. Oblak
Valencia
4-2-3-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 18Pepelu
- 8Javi Guerra
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 7A. Danjuma
- 19Dani Raba
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Carmine Maffeo Becerra
- 12J. de Haas
- 5César Tárrega
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 10:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Valencia have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Atletico Madrid wins, 0 draws, 1 Valencia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Valencia 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Valencia 3-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Atletico Madrid on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Valencia score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Valencia | 1.0 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga (22 points from 9 matches) and Valencia sit 19th (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Valencia played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Valencia is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.