PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Willem II. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
PSV Eindhoven is a heavy favourite: 2,219 Elo points against 1,820 — a 400-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSV Eindhoven have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Willem II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 0-4 | Super Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 PSV Eindhoven win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Willem II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Willem II 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| May 1, 2022 | PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Willem II 2-1 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| May 9, 2021 | Willem II 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Nov 8, 2020 | PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd in Eredivisie (7 points from 3 matches) and Willem II sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
- The Footlab model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Willem II.
- Where and when is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II played?
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is played on October 31, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.