Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for AZ Alkmaar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Ajax (2,110) and AZ Alkmaar (2,161).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ajax win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 AZ Alkmaar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 6-0 Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| Dec 8, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 6th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for AZ Alkmaar.
- Where and when is Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar is played on October 31, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.