Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC)Euroborg, Groningen
The Footlab model makes Groningen the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Groningen (1,949) and Sparta Rotterdam (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Groningen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Sparta Rotterdam have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | MSV Duisburg(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Asteras Tripolis(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Groningen win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Sparta Rotterdam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 5-2 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Groningen 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Groningen 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| May 28, 2023 | Groningen 0-5 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Groningen score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Rotterdam score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.4 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Groningen sit 5th in Eredivisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Sparta Rotterdam sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- The Footlab model makes Groningen the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam played?
- Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is played on November 1, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC) at Euroborg, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.