Qarabag vs Twente: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa Conference LeaguePlayoff roundKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu, Baku
The Footlab model makes Qarabag the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Twente. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Qarabag vs Twente?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Qarabag (2,054) and Twente (2,073).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Qarabag have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Twente have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(home) | 3-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Qarabag win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Twente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Twente 0-1 Qarabag | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 28, 2014 | Twente 1-1 Qarabag | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 21, 2014 | Qarabag 0-0 Twente | UEFA Europa League |
How many goals should we expect?
Qarabag score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Twente score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 1.7 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Twente | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Qarabag vs Twente?
- The Footlab model makes Qarabag the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Twente.
- Where and when is Qarabag vs Twente played?
- Qarabag vs Twente is played on August 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.